QCP: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and market volatility will remain at a high level

On March 17th, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that over the weekend, a BTC whale opened a $400 million BTC short position, causing market volatility on Sunday. Some groups attempted to liquidate this 40x leveraged position, which only required a 2.5% price movement to achieve. Despite these efforts, the position has not been liquidated and has accumulated nearly $400,000 in funding fees. Currently, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index is at 32 (fear), reflecting ongoing risk aversion sentiment, especially in the context of overall bearish stock market sentiment. This further strengthens BTC's role as a macro hedging tool. Despite the volatile market sentiment, BTC remains above $80,000, demonstrating resilience compared to the U.S. stock market.

In contrast, U.S. stock index futures opened lower this morning, influenced by growing concerns of an economic recession. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the possibility of an economic recession cannot be ruled out, aligning with previous statements made by Trump. The market will focus on tonight's release of U.S. retail sales data to assess whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an initial sign of slowing consumer spending or simply a post-holiday season pullback from the strong 2024 consumption season. Due to the lack of strong narrative drivers in the current crypto market, market focus remains on U.S. stocks. Last week, U.S. CPI data came in lower than expected, briefly easing market tension, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish in the short term. With tariff risks and inflation concerns still present, rate cut expectations remain unclear. Therefore, we expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at this week's FOMC meeting on Wednesday. However, as the market looks for any clues about the Fed's future policy direction, especially amid the uncertainty of Trump's policy changes, market volatility is expected to remain at high levels.